Monday, June 29, 2009 Economic 10:30am June Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (last -21.5%) Events 9:30amFed’s Rosengren speaks at conference in Brussels. PCS, WDC to be addedto the S&P500; FOSL, EQIX to be added to the S&P400; ALGN to beadded to the S&P600 after the close. Ex-dividend: CAH $0.175, RSG $0.19. Earnings After the Close: APOL , HRB. Tuesday, June 30, 2009 Economic 9:00am April S&P/CS Home Price Index (last 139.99), April S&P/CS Composite-20 y/y (last -18.70%)
EMU inflation flash estimate (June): falling prices
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EMU industrial confidence and economic sentiment (June): up M3 growth (May): declining further German adjusted unemployment (June): sharper rise EMU inflation flash estimate (June): falling prices ECB Council : policy unchanged German retail sales could have decreased slightly in May , as retailers’ business assessment improved but consumer confidence deteriorated. EMU economic sentiment and EMU industrial confidence will probably have improved substantially in June ,
ISM manufacturing index (June): sixth consecutive increase
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Consumer confidence (June): slight decline after rebound in April and May ISM manufacturing index (June): sixth consecutive increase Non-farm payrolls (June): pace of job losses slowing but still historically high Despite rapidly rising unemployment, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence rebounded in April and May, particularly due to expectations. However, confidence could have fallen in June: the June survey of the University of Michigan showed a slight deterioration in expectations,
PCE core deflator (May): only a small increase
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Durable goods orders (May): setback due to the automobile sector FOMC statement: will attempt to abate rate rise speculation PCE core deflator (May): only a small increase UMI consumer sentiment (final June): possibly lower than the preliminary results Existing home sales rose by almost 3% mom in April, but the inventories-to-sales ratio (months supply) also went up to 10.2 months, indicating continued downward pressure on home prices. We predict that existing home sales will have increased
German ifo business climate (June): improvement
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PMI manufacturing indices Germany and EMU (June): up German CPI inflation (June): Slightly positive The preliminary results for national German CPI for June are due to be released on Friday at the latest. We expect German consumer prices to have gone up by 0.3 % month-on-month; the annual rate would then increase slightly to 0.1 %. The monthly inflation will have been mainly due to significant price increases for gasoline and heating oil. These products are likely to have pushed inflation up
Monday, June 22, 2009 Economic None Seen Events Morgan Keegan Insurance & Total Return Strategy Conference. Ex-dividend: FLS $0.27, PM $0.54, HNZ $0.42, TS $0.60. Earnings Before the Open: WAG . After the Close: SWHC. Tuesday, June 23, 2009 Economic 10:00am April HousePrice Index m/m (last -1.1%), May Existing Home Sales (last 4.68M, m/m2.9%), June Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (last -9) 1:00pm Treasury’s 2-yr note auction 4:30pm API Crude Oil/Gasoline/Distillate Inventories Events
First regional PMIs (June): still showing contraction in the manufacturing sector
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PPI & CPI (May): upward pressure on energy prices only Housing starts (May): NAHB index signals slight improvement Industrial production (May): automobile plant shutdowns lead to sharp drop Leading indicators (May): second marked increase in a row At –4.6, the New York Empire manufacturing index was only slightly negative in May. However, the manufacturing sector is still contracting, and, after having recovered significantly by 34 points in the last two months, we expect the New York
The German ZEW economic sentiment will probably have risen again in June , but not as sharply as the previous month. The ifo business expectations and the US ISM manufacturing index have both improved. German yield spreads have widened somewhat, as short-term interest rates have stabilised and long-term rates have gone up. The DAX has continued to recover too. On the other hand, the euro has appreciated and crude oil prices have increased. Following its usual seasonal pattern, the EMU trade