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Nov 17

Leading indicators (Oct): accelerating downward trend

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NY Empire and Philadelphia Fed index (Nov): still at record-low recession levels Industrial production (Oct): slight increase but downward trend remains intact PPI and CPI (Oct): sharp declines due to correction in energy prices Philadelphia Fed & NY Empire manufacturing index The New York Empire manufacturing index , which was first released in July 2001, fell to an all-time low of –24.6 in November. Given the deterioration in domestic demand and the global economy and the continued

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Nov 17

Week of 11/17/2008 thru 11/21/2008

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Monday, November 17, 2008 Economic 8:30am Nov Empire Manufacturing (last –24.6) 9:15am Oct Industrial Production (last –2.8%), Oct Capacity Utilization (last 76.4%) 10:00am TAF auction Events 9:00amFed’s Hoenig speaks on regulation in New York. 6:30pm Treasury SecPaulson to speak on the economy and markets in Washington, DC. Treasuryrefunding settlement. Senate may begin debate on auto industrybailout bill. Canaccord Adams Global Energy Conference. Deutsche Bank& Goldman Sachs Gaming

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Nov 17

RBS PMI manufacturing indices Germany and EMU (November): down

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The RBS purchasing managers’ index for the German and EMU manufacturing sector will probably have continued deteriorating in November , just like most of the correlated business climate indicators. French consumer spending is expected to have decreased in October , because consumer confidence deteriorated. The EMU trade balance is likely to have improved in September , like the corresponding German figure.

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Nov 14

November 2008 Calendar − Update

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November 2008 Calendar

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Nov 10

Trade balance (September): narrower deficit despite fall in exports

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Import prices (October): third sharp decline in a row due to commodities  Retail sales (October): sharper downward trend following plunge in consumer sentiment UMI consumer sentiment (Nov): slight stabilization possible after Obama victory The trade deficit narrowed from $61.3bn to $59.1bn in August, and could have shrunk to $56.5bn in September , as imports will have fallen particularly due to the oilrelated drop in import prices by 3.0% mom. However, given global economic cooling and

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Nov 10

EMU industrial production (September): down

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German ZEW economic sentiment (November): down German, French, Italian and EMU GDP growth (Q3): down HICP inflation in the euro area (October): likely to be confirmed at 3.2% yoy In November , the German ZEW economic sentiment will probably have continued its downturn, but at a slower pace. All correlated indicators were obviously driven by the current financial turmoil and its potential long-term effects on economic growth. Both the ifo business expectations and the US ISM manufacturing index

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Nov 10

Week of 11/10/2008 thru 11/14/2008

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Monday, November 10, 2008 Economic None Seen Events Recommend early bond market close. 10:00am Treasury’s Kashkari speaks about the TARP program in New York. Deutsche Bank BRIC Metal & Mining Conference. Merrill Lynch Banking& Financial Conference. Rodman & Renshaw Global InvestmentConference. Trades Ex-dividend: AMAT $0.06, WYE $0.30, AET $0.04, MER$0.35, RRD $0.26, PVH $0.038. Earnings Beforethe Open: NXST, FCFC, MDTL, GNET, VCGH, PSEC, EPCC, PMFG, AXAS, VSR,JBT, EPE, LNY, URRE,

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Nov 03

ISM indices (October): declining further to recession levels

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Factory orders (September): decrease partly due to falling energy prices Labour market (October): downward trend accelerates Domestic vehicle sales could have fallen back from 9.6m to 9.0m in October . This would be the lowest level since the recession at the beginning of the 90s, as the credit crunch, rising unemployment and depressed consumer sentiment are reducing the willingness to buy cars. The ISM manufacturing index declined from 49.9 to 43.5 in September, and the regional October

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Nov 03

ECB refi rate: 50bp reduction almost sure

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German industrial new orders (September): down Output in the German producing sector (September): down Germany: Output in the producing sector usually follows industrial new orders German industrial new orders and output in the German producing sector probably suffered setbacks in September, as their steep increases in August were mainly driven by a favourable holiday effect and nearly all correlated indicators dropped. The German trade balance and current account might have rebounded somewhat

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Nov 03

Week of 11/3/2008 thru 11/7/2008

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Monday, November 03, 2008 Economic 10:00am Oct ISM Manufacturing (last 43.5), Oct ISM Prices Paid (last 53.5), OctConstruction Spending m/m (last 0.0%), Treasury’s TAF announcement 3:00pm Treasury’s quarterly funding estimates Events 3:45am Fed’s Lacker speaks on monetary policy in Israel. Credit Suisse Asian Healthcare Conference. Goldman Sachs SoftwareConference. Financial Times World Telecoms Conference. OppenheimerHealth Care Conference. Terrapin Asia Oil & Gas InvestmentConference.

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